Sunday, November 19, 2017

My favorite lineup (after Sunday Chaos)

QBTom Brady8600
RBKareem Hunt8600
RBKenyan Drake5600
WRJamison Crowder5400
WRBrandin Cooks7700
WRMichael Thomas8600
TEVernon Davis5200
DJacksonville Jaguars5600

Chaos in KC/NYG game

  • Wind is very strong. I am downgrading the passing games
  • Shepard likely to scratch boosting Engram (except wind)
  • Bounce for Hunt

Thursday, November 16, 2017

My CASH game right now (for THU - MON) contests

QBAlex Smith7900
RBKareem Hunt8600
RBTevin Coleman5900
WRSterling Shepard6500
WRJulio Jones7700
WRJamison Crowder5400
TETravis Kelce7500
DJacksonville Jaguars5600
and some explanations of my strongest takes:

QB Alex Smith ($7,900): The Giants have allowed 26.02, 28,44, and 26.34 fantasy points to quarterbacks the last three weeks. Those QBs were C.J. Beathard, Jared Goff, and Russell Wilson. He is the safest option this week and comes at a modest price. Vegas implied team total is 28.25 points.

WR Sterling Shepard ($6,500): I am expecting the Chiefs to roll and Shephard is the Giants best WR still standing. Terrance Williams (9 catches for 141 yards), Dez Bryant (6 catches for 73 yards), Cole Beasley (2 TDs), Amari Cooper (11 catches for 210 yards and 2 TDs) have shredded this unit in recent history.

TE Travis Kelce ($7,500): The NY Giants have allowed ten touchdowns (in 9 games) to tight ends. Kelce has a reduced price and seems poised to score in this game.

Jacksonville Defense ($5,600) - The last four defenses have accumulated 56 fantasy points (14 per game) against the Browns. And Jacksonville has a better defense that the Browns have been facing.

This is a good week to play THU-MON contests

I will be playing cash+ lineups tonight for the following reasons:

  • I fully expect RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) to scratch. If this happens, RB Tevin Coleman  ($5,900) is the best value at the position.
  • Even if Freeman does play, RB Jamaal Williams ($5,600) might be the only GB running back still standing (Ty Montgomery remains sidelined with a rib injury and Aaron Jones is out).
  • Because of the above values at RB, I think it's a major roster construction problem to use RB Le'Veon Bell tonight. In cash games, I expect Bell to be over-owned. 

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Full fade for me on THU again

Rawls ($5,100) is intriguing, but I see way too many other RB values I like way better.

I fully expect Russell Wilson to be over-owned. He is in a decent situation, but I do not like the low over/under at 40 with an implied Seattle total of just 23 points.

Way better spots this week elsewhere that I will line out in later posts tonight.

Sunday, November 5, 2017

Fournette OUT

Ivory becomes a MUST-PLAY and much needed for cap relief.

Sunday Thoughts

Busy doing a ton of stuff for the site, but adding these thoughts:

  • Backed off full fade of Elliott. I am watching to see if McFadden is inactive.  If McFadden scratches, I expect the Cowboys to give Zeke a lot of workload today.
  • Ty Hilton, Jack Doyle, Jax Def, and Will Lutz all projected higher.
  • Downgrading SEA and WAS passing and kicking games (weather related moves)

Saturday, November 4, 2017

I think Ezekiel Elliott is a TRAP

I think playing Elliott is a TRAP for these reasons:
  • The team had assumed they were not going to have him starting this week so only yesterday's practice would have included Zeke.
  • The Cowboys have to figure out what they are going to do when Zeke misses the next 6 weeks. That starts now as well.
  • Watch to see if all of the backs are active.  If they are, I suspect we see them all in this game to suppress Elliott's upside.
He could still have a great game, but at his salary and ownership, I think he is a CLEAR fade for me.

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Full fade of Ezekiel Elliott for me.

I rate these RBs in better situations (price per dollar) at a minimum:

  • Le'Veon Bell
  • Lesean McCoy
  • Mark Ingram
  • Joe Mixon
My win/loss rate will likely hinge on this very decision, but I am OK fading here.

Is Joe Mixon ($5,900) safe to play?

No one is doubting the talent. He was a 5-star recruit and top RB by Rivals coming out of high school. He received 47 full-ride scholarship offers.

At Oklahoma, he had a few moments of greatness, but also had many off-the-field issues including a beat down of a girl in 2014.

As a rookie this season, he has also flashed skills at times and was playing well last week against a stout Pittsburgh defense.

The team abandoned the run in the second half and Mixon decided to call out his coach for the move after the game. Mixon might be right (as it makes little to no sense for this team to keep playing veteren Jeremy Hill), but you get a sense that HC Marvin Lewis isn't going to bend an inch here.

I suspect this situation stays a full-blown RBBC this week as well and Mixon might even be forced to sit a bit of the game out as punishment.  It what should be a great spot, this situation feels more like a GPP only spot for me.

WEATHER - Tampa Bay / Carolina Wind Speed

Tampa Bay Wind Speed

My Take: I won't worry unless this looks like it will be 20+ sustained winds. Predicted at 16 mph now (not ideal, but not horrible for a strong armed thrower like Cam Newton)

WEATHER - San Francisco/Philadelphia Game

The latest from the National Weather Service:

Sunday: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then rain between 8am and 2pm, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 68. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
My Take: I am starting to fear the worst that this becomes a ground/pound game and Wentz is a fade.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Thursday Game - Easy Fade

No one stands out in this contest.

  • QB Matt Moore is a decent value at $6,500, but the Ravens are stingy on defense.
  • WR Kenny Stills' price has increased $500 after his break-through game last week.
  • RB Jay Ajayi is moderately priced, but has shown little in great matchups (and this is worse than that).
  • The under/over is a ridiculously low 37.5 points.
Possibly one of the easiest fade situations in recent memory

Saturday, October 21, 2017

RB Chris Ivory ($5,900) is the PLAY OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis can't stop the run. They were a mirage early in the season because they are bad in both run/pass defense so teams just elected to shred them in the air. They were gashed last week on the ground and all of 2016. Nothing has changed.

Last week, Derrick Henry and a hobbled DeMarco Murray combined for 171 rushing yards and two TDs on 31 carries.

He will be in 100% of my lineups tomorrow. I have him projected to get 14.9 fantasy points.

If Leonard Fournette and DeMarco Murray scratch...

QBDrew Brees8300
RBDerrick Henry5600
RBChris Ivory5900
WRRishard Matthews5500
WRMichael Thomas7700
WRJulio Jones8800
TERob Gronkowski8500
DMinnesota Vikings4700

Thursday, October 19, 2017

QB Tyrod Taylor Home/Away splits

One of the quarterbacks I will have exposure to this week is Tyrod Taylor. He excels at home and draws a soft Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has been torched a lot this season.

Consider the last twenty games (ten home and ten away):

  • Away: 1,821 passing yards, 7 passing TDs, 4 interceptions, 284 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
  • Home: 2,112 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, 4 interceptions, 417 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
and now look at what quartbacks have done against the Tampa Bay defense this year:

 Three quarterbacks (Palmer, Manning, and Keenum) have all returned 3X value against this unit. Tyrod Taylor (at home) and possibly getting WR Jordan Matthews back is in a great spot to exceed his low $7,000 price this week.

Defensive Pressure Calculation

One of the things I do internally for help in creating projections is to match defenses vs offenses for fumble recoveries and sacks. It is a normalized indicator that gets better and better as more games are played. Without getting deep into the math, this is what this indicator is telling me this week:

Top 5 harassing defenses this week:

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis)
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Cincinnati)
  3. Miami Dolphins (vs New York Jets)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (vs Arizona in London)
  5. Carolina Panthers (at Chicago)
The fact that so many of these defenses stack nicely with elite running backs makes for so intriguing GPP plays.

Worst 5 harassing defenses this week: 

30. New York Jets (at Miami)
29. Indianapolis Colts (vs Jacksonville)
28. Buffalo Bills (vs Tampa Bay)
27. Green Bay Packers (vs New Orleans)
26. Arizona Cardinals (vs LA Rams in London)

This implies QBs Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Jameis Winston, Drew Brees, and Jared Goff should have a day without a lot of pressure.

Injuries are keeping the rankings in flux

This week a lot of situations seem to be in play that could impact DFS lineups. Namely:

  • Does Jameis Winston play? He supposedly only threw one pass on Thursday and now looks like he could scratch. If Winston scratches, both Fitzpatrick ($6,300) and Tyrod Taylor ($7,000) as well as Buffalo's defense all get upgraded.
  • Does WR Stefon Diggs play? I have it that way currently which puts WR Adam Thielen solidly in play.
  • Does WR Jordan Matthews play? If he does that would be another point towards playing QB Tyrod Taylor.
  • Does RB DeMarco Murray play? he did not practice on Thursday and his absence could vault RB Derrick Henry who looked solid last week.
  • Is Marqise Lee going to play? Because if he scratches, WR Allen Hurns becomes my play of the week. Lee has now missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices.
  • WR Kelvin Benjamin is in danger of scratching. If that happens, Devin Funchess is elevated significantly.
  • RB Jonathan Stewart, were he to scratch, would put Chrstian McCaffrey ($6,800) in a great spot.
Because of these reasons, I am just going to sit out the Thursday slate of games. I want clarity on these situations before I commit to how I even build my lineups.

Play Minnesota defense with confidence

  • WR Breshard Perriman (concussion) is likely to miss
  • TE Ben Watson has yet to practice
  • WR Mike Wallace was limited on Wednesday and missed Thursday's practice.
  • WR Jeremy Maclin is practicing this week but missed week 6 with a shoulder injury.
  • The Ravens resigned journeyman Griff Whalen today
  • Minnesota has not allowed a 100 yard WR yet this season.
  • Minnesota has allowed just 4 passing TDs to WRs this season.
  • Vegas expects Baltimore to score less than 17 points.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

My Thursday CASH lineup

This is subject to change (with late swap), but reflects my current thoughts: