Sunday, December 31, 2017

I am rolling with this in cash

Zeroing in on TE Walker now too.  He gets a bunch more money should they win and I expect he and Derrick Henry carry this team across the finish line today.  I don't love Mike Evans matchup, but his price is very nice. TY Hilton also can fit in here (in place of Evans), and he draws a plus matchup against the Texans.

QBMatthew Stafford7800
RBDion Lewis7200
RBDerrick Henry5800
WRJulio Jones8400
WRMichael Thomas8200
WRMike Evans6900
TEDelanie Walker6100
DSeattle Seahawks5000

PIT benches stars

Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell both scratch. I have lowered Juju considerably. I am avoiding all PIT players this week.

New England's Ice Bowl

Super cold on the field. Team scratches RB James White as well. Dion Lewis and Brandon Bolden are the only running backs active for the Patriots in a game I expect them to run a lot. Dion Lewis becomes an autoplay for me in 100% of my lineups.

Sunday, December 24, 2017

Demaryius Thomas gets a late projection upgrade

With both Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer scratching, Thomas is in a great spot to deliver on his $6,500 salary.  He should see massive targets.

My current Cash game roster looks like this:

QBCam Newton8300
RBTodd Gurley9100
RBEzekiel Elliott8300
WRDemaryius Thomas6500
WRChris Godwin4500
WRMike Evans7000
TETravis Kelce7000
DKansas City Chiefs4500

WR Michael Thomas and his hamstring

From our Dr. Jene Bramel

Just too little to go on with Thomas. I can't remember a situation where a skill position player is added with a soft tissue injury 24 hours after the game status report is released. Especially one that's never been reported or listed on a practice report earlier in the year. Pregame notes aren't helpful or surprising either. The reason the Saints added him was that they felt there was a chance they'd make him inactive. If he's active it's pretty reassuring. However, there are many scenarios where the Saints limit him or remove him early. Really tough call but I'd lean toward staying away. Contrarian GPS play, high risk-lowish reward playoff lineup play.

My take: This is far too risky of a play in your DFS lineups this week based on this late news.

Sunday, December 17, 2017

I am lowering my passing game expectations in the SEA/LAR game

due to weather.

Rain likely with the temperature around 45 degrees. Winds will be 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

Mike Davis gets a bump. Gurley yards shifted more to run from the pass. Passing games take a small hit which puts Foles as my desired QB play (over Wilson) this week.

A few scratches and the roster is coming into focus

Fournette scratching puts Ivory ($4,700) into play and Ginn scratching adds value to a Michael Thomas play. Both now crack my final cash lineup.

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Lineup I like right now for THU-MON contests

This plays Doyle tonight...

QBNick Foles6000
RBLeVeon Bell9400
RBKenyan Drake6500
WRAntonio Brown9300
WRAdam Thielen7600
WRDede Westbrook5700
TEJack Doyle5200
DMinnesota Vikings4800

Sunday, December 10, 2017


That's a little bit of snow.

Weather + No Danny Shelton (NT) has me loving Jamaal Williams

and I am playing him over Lamar Miller now

TE Zach Ertz scratches

This news definitely vaults TE Trey Burton into consideration.

Sunday Thoughts - Bengals defense

Even though the indicators suggest the Bengals Defense is a good play, all of these injuries tell me a different story.  I am off them and rolling with the Packers in most of my lineups.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

New Orleans / Atlanta game is intriguing, but...

I am fading everyone in cash games.

At QB, Ryan ($7,900) and Brees ($8,000) are decent values, but I like a lot of the low-priced options better (Kizer, Savage, Gabbert, Winston) and prefer spending to $8,200 for Alex Smith against the Raiders.

At RB, no one is hotter than Kamara, but at $9,200 he no longer represents much (if any true value). I expect Joe Mixon to scratch make Giovani Bernard a must-play at $5,100. If Ingram scratches tonight though, Kamara could be worth the price. Freeman's price is very low, and could also hit value, but I prefer spending up with my 2nd running back.

At WR, I prefer Keenan Allen for $100 less than Julio ($8,500) and Cooks/Fitzgerald for the same price as Thomas ($7,600).

At tight end, no options seem relevant in this game.

At kicker, Matt Bryant at home is always a possibility. This is a dome game and has the highest over/under. Both kickers should do well.  I prefer just keeping my whole roster alive rather than kill it now should he under-perform.

With such a high over/under at 52, I think the defenses will struggle.

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Novak is OUT...

I always hate it when my plan goes to crap at kicker.

I think Gostkowski is worth paying up for at present.

I am liking this cash game a lot:

QBBrett Hundley6400
RBJamaal Williams5700
RBTodd Gurley8800
WRDavante Adams6500
WRBrandin Cooks7600
WRMike Evans7500
TETravis Kelce7000
DLos Angeles Chargers5300

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Fading the THU game as usual, but Perine is a solid option

Reasons I am fading everyone:

at QB, I like nearly everyone better than these two quarterbacks at their respected prices. I will play this slate because I expect a good 5-10% of the field will wrongly choose one of the QBs in this game. I believe it to be a catastrophic mistake.

at RB, I think Perine is a good value, but am going to pass on him because I love Jamaal Williams ($5,700). He is in a situation where he should achieve 2X easily and has a path to 3X+. I am playing him in 100% of my lineups. There are a lot of other guys worth playing (in addition to Williams) so I prefer punting tonight as well.

At WR, Crowder is decently priced, but there are so many value WRs available plus Brandin Cooks is just $7,600.

at Tight End, both Vernon Davis and Jason Witten are too sporadic for my likes.  Both could do well, but prefer Jared Cook (for a similar price) and also like the options much higher priced.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Life Interfering with time to do blog this week.

But some quick points:

1. Lockdown RB Tevin Coleman and WR Cooper Kupp. They have outstanding floors and are in games with high expected team totals. They are priced way too low for their expanded roles due to injury.

2. If you are playing a defense that is not CIN or PIT in cash games, you are taking the contrarian thing way too far. They are priced cheaply and are in great situations. I prefer PIT, but will have exposure to both.

3. With Rishard Matthews out, I think TE Delanie Walker is one of the sharper plays today. He is a sneaky pivot away from Gronkowski and Kelce should you desire to do that.

Sunday, November 19, 2017

My favorite lineup (after Sunday Chaos)

QBTom Brady8600
RBKareem Hunt8600
RBKenyan Drake5600
WRJamison Crowder5400
WRBrandin Cooks7700
WRMichael Thomas8600
TEVernon Davis5200
DJacksonville Jaguars5600

Chaos in KC/NYG game

  • Wind is very strong. I am downgrading the passing games
  • Shepard likely to scratch boosting Engram (except wind)
  • Bounce for Hunt

Thursday, November 16, 2017

My CASH game right now (for THU - MON) contests

QBAlex Smith7900
RBKareem Hunt8600
RBTevin Coleman5900
WRSterling Shepard6500
WRJulio Jones7700
WRJamison Crowder5400
TETravis Kelce7500
DJacksonville Jaguars5600
and some explanations of my strongest takes:

QB Alex Smith ($7,900): The Giants have allowed 26.02, 28,44, and 26.34 fantasy points to quarterbacks the last three weeks. Those QBs were C.J. Beathard, Jared Goff, and Russell Wilson. He is the safest option this week and comes at a modest price. Vegas implied team total is 28.25 points.

WR Sterling Shepard ($6,500): I am expecting the Chiefs to roll and Shephard is the Giants best WR still standing. Terrance Williams (9 catches for 141 yards), Dez Bryant (6 catches for 73 yards), Cole Beasley (2 TDs), Amari Cooper (11 catches for 210 yards and 2 TDs) have shredded this unit in recent history.

TE Travis Kelce ($7,500): The NY Giants have allowed ten touchdowns (in 9 games) to tight ends. Kelce has a reduced price and seems poised to score in this game.

Jacksonville Defense ($5,600) - The last four defenses have accumulated 56 fantasy points (14 per game) against the Browns. And Jacksonville has a better defense that the Browns have been facing.

This is a good week to play THU-MON contests

I will be playing cash+ lineups tonight for the following reasons:

  • I fully expect RB Devonta Freeman (concussion) to scratch. If this happens, RB Tevin Coleman  ($5,900) is the best value at the position.
  • Even if Freeman does play, RB Jamaal Williams ($5,600) might be the only GB running back still standing (Ty Montgomery remains sidelined with a rib injury and Aaron Jones is out).
  • Because of the above values at RB, I think it's a major roster construction problem to use RB Le'Veon Bell tonight. In cash games, I expect Bell to be over-owned.